My first post about statistics!

Harry Potter example

Finally, a post not about cooking …

I recently gave a 1.5-hours lecture to friends who were interested in Bayesian statistics, and the slides are here.

This lecture covers (very briefly) the following topics

  • Bayes formula (i.e., conditional probablity)

    • Example: breast cancer screening
  • Bayesian parameter estimation (i.e., posterior distribution formula)

    • Beta-Binomial updating, with a coin flipping example
    • Example: Bayesian inference on the Rotten Tomato “freshness” of the Harry Potter movie series (This is what the above picture is about)
    • MCMC (very high-level intro)
  • Bayesian hypothesis testing